tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90540440459849395762023-11-15T13:15:36.295+00:00Why Not?IS Management Professional turned entrepreneur. CEO and co-founder of <a href="http://twoten.is">TwoTen</a>. And why not?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-65158013837037810342015-02-06T15:02:00.000+00:002015-03-06T16:20:07.575+00:00Thoughts for startups (no. 7)<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"He never created a finished product. Finished products are for decadent minds. His was an evolving mechanism..."</i></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>Isaac Asimov, 1964</i></div>
<br />
Related to the over-hyped start-up concept of the Minimum Viable Product (MVP), on which more later, but also related to the Japanese manufacturing concept of kaizen, or continuous improvement, which in turn draws on martial art philosophies (or the <a href="http://www.matthewsyed.co.uk/books/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">power of practice</a>).<br />
<br />
Your tech product isn't finished, and isn't going to be. Ever. You might stop developing it and people might carry on using it, and preferably paying for it; but it's not finished. There will always be some improvement, however slight, that can be made to some aspect of it. But more importantly you won't really start to understand what your product does and can do until you make it. Great that you came up with an idea, tweaked it around a bit before realising it. But until you actually have it in front of you, there will be features, UI elements, loads of better stuff to do with it that you couldn't imagine before; and that's nothing to what happens when you put it in front of someone else.<br />
<br />
Another lesson to draw is that those changes should be evolutionary as much as possible, at least from the end user perspective. So it's great that you can get a 10% improvement in UI responsiveness by redeveloping the entire back end - but make that change without disrupting the end user. Thought of 6 great ways you could improve the UI? Make them one at a time. Because each is like a product in its own right; seeing the change in use opens up a whole set of possibilities about how the product could be improved.<br />
<br />
So make your product work and then improve it; don't be a decadent mind.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-28548737850369045212014-09-29T12:40:00.000+01:002014-09-29T16:44:50.869+01:00Market size: what's totally addressable (dude)<br />
<br />
For some months now I've been wondering how med-tech startups were able to claim such huge global market sizes, and then I read <a href="http://www.ec1capital.com/blog/2014/identifying-a-startups-total-addressable-market" target="_blank">this post from EC1 Capital</a>. If I understand the definitions discussed in that post, then I've been using tiny Total Addressable Market numbers where I could have used much, much, much bigger numbers. As in several orders of magnitude bigger.<br />
<br />
Med-tech companies sometimes quote global market sizes in trillions of dollars, which can only be the amount being spent on health or medical-related activity. So the equivalent for <a href="http://twoten.is/" target="_blank">TwoTen</a>...<br />
<br />
Our product is designed for primary schools, nurseries & families, so we could use the same logic to claim that it has a total market size <b>in the UK alone</b> of over $100bn. I think.<br />
<br />
This figure is derived as follows:<br />
<br />
the estimated cost to parents of bringing up a child to age 21<br />
<br />
=£225k<br />
<br />
divide by the number of years to get a per annum figure<br />
<br />
=£10.7k<br />
<br />
Multiply by 5.2m - the number of households with children aged 10 or under (our target age group)<br />
<br />
=£55.7bn.<br />
<br />
Add in primary school state funding (approximates to the primary school budget)<br />
<br />
Average funding per school £4100, times approx number of pupils 4.4m<br />
<br />
<br />
=£18bn (those are figures just for England rather than UK, so this total is low)<br />
<br />
Total figure, which excludes nurseries and private schools to avoid any double counting of parental expenditure, is then<br />
<br />
=£73.7bn<br />
<br />
which in USD means our <b>market size</b>, just in the <b>UK</b><br />
<br />
<b>=$118bn</b><br />
<br />
An 18* multiple seems fair for extrapolating the global market size. Conveniently, yay! Turns out we're also targeting a global market worth trillions of dollars!<br />
<br />
This huge number makes for an interesting contrast with the financial figure we would normally quote. It's from a report from analysts ABI Research, which estimated the <b>global market</b> for parental control software will grow to a rather dull<br />
<br />
<b>$2bn</b><br />
<br />
by 2018.<br />
<br />
Again, based on the EC1 article, I think it's appropriate to use that as a starting figure for TwoTen's global Total Addressable Market (TAM) - a starting figure because it excludes revenue sourced from schools, nurseries, mobile partnerships and special use cases. But still, that means our <b>TAM</b> is around <b>only 0.1%</b> of the market size derived above.<br />
<br />
So while it's tempting to emulate those med-tech startups and use the big number, ours was always the more realistic and informative, simply because we can grow to dominate that dull figure, as all of it is expenditure on what we do (only we're doing it better, of course ;) ). On the other hand we would never, ever take more than a tiny fraction of that hugely cool first number, which includes spending on food, clothes, housing, primary and nursery staff wages, etc..<br />
<br />
Similarly the med tech market size figure contains huge elements of expenditure that they can't expect to replace; nursing staff wages, medicines, food, power, buildings; so their figure might look impressive, their TAM is certainly smaller - and if they can't find a suitable analyst report, they're welcome to just apply our neatly calculated 0.1%.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-58346058369245168552014-05-18T16:10:00.002+01:002014-05-18T16:10:51.957+01:00Stopping PDF encryption hurting your productivityHere's how to get around copy and paste issues with text from a protected PDF. No programming talent required (which is good, is not a talent I have...). Sharing this knowledge may put me in contravention of some anti-consumer law somewhere, I don't know, it's a weird world. <br />
<br />
Scenario: my partner was working on updating a report, reusing and updating material from an earlier report produced by a colleague. This earlier report was only available as a PDF and it turned out this PDF had protection enabled to prevent copy and paste. Now, I could either let her manually type out the material (amounting to quite a few pages of text) or I could find a way around it.<br />
<br />
Simple it turns out to be...<br />
<br />
<br />
In summary: convert the PDF to an image and feed it into an OCR engine. With care on the PDF to image conversion, and presuming a decent font/typography in the original PDF, the resulting OCR output should be near 100%.<br />
<br />
There's a bunch of ways this can be achieved, what follows is the process I used (which should be more or less applicable anywhere, but was done with Linux on my partners XPS15). You should be able to more or less cut and paste the following commands to achieve a similar outcome on your own machine, once you've got the right software installed (tesseract and ghostscript).<br />
<br />
First convert the PDF to an image (the TIFF format was used here as the PDF was multipage):<br />
<br />
<i>gs -o /path/to/outputfile.tif -sDEVICE=tiffgray -r720x720
-g6120x7920 -sCompression=lzw /path/to/inputfile.pdf</i><br />
<br />
Then run OCR software to convert the image to txt:<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /><i>tesseract /path/to/outputfile.tif /path/to/ocroutputfile</i><br />
<br />
Done. One text file, simply and cleanly formatted, containing all the text from the protected PDF. All DRM can be defeated this easily - if you can see it, it can be copied.<br />
<br />
NB If in another scenario if you needed the final output to be more nearly a copy of the original PDF you'd need to involve OCR layout functionality - but much of that's doable with Tesseract by changing the output format to hOCR. And then, if you really wanted to, you could use hocr2pdf to recreate the PDF...<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-50856210279138780972014-04-18T18:36:00.000+01:002014-12-15T12:41:07.757+00:00Thoughts for startups (no. 6)<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"Nine-tenths of tactic were certain enough to be teachable in schools; but the irrational tenth was like the kingfisher flashing across the pool, and in it lay the test of generals."</i></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i> T.E.Lawrence, Seven Pillars of Wisdom</i><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
A quote from that Lawrence, from his book that became the basis of the film Lawrence of Arabia<i>.</i> This is as true now in a business context as it was then and now in military campaigns.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
You can't teach that vision element of strategy; an MBA can give knowledge that helps prevent mistakes, to understand laws and financial accounts, and provide tools to help you analyse how the organisation or a team or a product line are performing, and how that performance might be improved; so much can be taught in an MBA. Maybe a good MBA can help you to execute</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
But what can be taught is Lawrence's nine-tenths; but you need the vision, the deep inner understanding of your company's strengths and weaknesses, of what your product will become, of your market, the future. You need the irrational tenth</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-80059018243177229132014-04-11T18:28:00.000+01:002014-04-12T06:55:15.461+01:00Thoughts for startups (no. 5)There's a fairy tale, made famous by being included in a Brothers Grimm collection, called The Brave Little Tailor. A very, very short version goes like this:<br />
<br />
There was a little tailor and the flies are bothering him. He strikes out and kills 7 with one blow. Impressed with himself he makes a belt inscribed with this achievement<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
"killed 7 with one blow"</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
He encounters a giant who, assuming the claim on the belt means men, challenges him to a competition of strength. The giant squeezes a drop or two of water from a stone; the tailor squeezes a rock (a cheese) and gets more drops of whey; the giant throws a rock a long distance, the tailor throws a rock (a bird) which disappears into the distance, etc..</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Various other things happen and eventually he beats some giants who are terrorising a kingdom and gets half the kingdom in return.<i> </i></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The appearance of a great achievement becomes a great achievement, once the tailor is given a chance. But right at the beginning it all depends on him presenting his achievements to date in the best possible light. Let's call this his traction...</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-20903838959155930932013-12-28T07:40:00.003+00:002013-12-28T07:40:56.026+00:00Awesome is as awesome does<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value">There's a thing going around that the number of companies that receive investment doesn't alter the number that go on to be "awesome companies". To quote:</span></span></span></span><br />
<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value"><i>“The tech industry creates roughly 10 awesome companies per year... independent of...how many companies are funded"</i></span></span></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value"><i> Mike Maples, Floodgate Fund</i></span></span></span></span></div>
<br />
<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value">Putting aside that this is a very Silicon Valley-centric viewpoint, it seems there's
some confusion between the term "awesome companies" and "companies that
create awesome returns within the VC fund lifecycle". They are not the
same. A truly awesome company is an IBM, a Unilever, a Honda, a Beretta;
companies that stand the test of time, continue to evolve and grow by adapting
their products to meet changing times and changing customer demands.<br /><br />The
global tech industry almost certainly can and does produce more than 10
awesome companies a year. Some of those will not be VC funded (which
means you're unlikely to hear of them because they won't be riding the
hype wagon), some will be funded by funds that are not playing the short
term (10 years is short term, it's barely one economic cycle; Beretta
was founded in 1526), and some will take no more than a solid seed
investment round or two to become serious businesses.<br /><br />Clearly we
are limiting the definition of awesome here to that of great monetary value, which leaves aside
awesome tech companies like Mozilla and Wikimedia, but even so it is not
important for "awesomeness" to have become a billion dollar business in less than 10 years;
this only matters to people who have invested at valuations upward of
$50m and whose investment fund is time limited.</span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value">A seed round that values
a company at a few million needs only to reach a valuation of $50m in a
reasonable time (a) to have made a serious, awesome, return for
its investors and (b) where that company has achieved growth
while being profitable (rather than following growth strategies of the "seek users at all costs"
variety), then the investors could be taking annual dividends
equivalent to their original investment value.</span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value">Which is, surely, truly
awesome.</span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded#" id="__w2_ah5vm5o_toggle_link" style="font-size: x-small;"><span id="ld_xiqyuo_17964"><span id="ld_htghrw_18464"><span class="inline_editor_value"><i>A version of this post originally appeared as an <a href="http://www.quora.com/Startups/What-are-the-best-arguments-for-and-against-the-view-of-Mike-Maples-of-Floodgate-Fund-that-%E2%80%9CThe-tech-industry-creates-roughly-10-awesome-companies-per-year-independent-of-how-many-companies-are-funded" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">answer on Quora</a></i></span></span></span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-10463837680867082432013-11-23T07:01:00.000+00:002015-08-29T06:55:05.779+01:00Thoughts for startups (no. 4)Maybe this is more one for the investment community than startups as such, but here goes.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>The problem with elections as a way of choosing who should lead is that eventually those who get elected will be skilled in the art of getting elected and little else</i></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
That is loosely what Plato argues in The Republic - that those skilled in the art of persuasion are best at persuading others to vote for them, and hence that becomes the key skill for those who want to be elected. The skills that would make someone valuable as a political leader post election are irrelevant, because that is not how they are selected.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There is the same risk with this focus on selecting which startups to learn more about based on a 3 minute (or shorter!) pitch. It is hard to say anything really informative in 3 minutes, and hard to select what of all the things you could say about your disruptive startup[1] you will include. The best pitches will be delivered by those who have become good at pitching, good at choosing which things to say and good at saying them in a way that gets people's attention. The startups that deliver the best pitches become the startups the investors talk to.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
But being good at pitching is not the same as having a good idea, being good at solutions, being good at people and project management, being good at building a business; so the selection criteria is wrong. Using this as a filter means investors can't expect to get to talk to the great startups, the next Google; they should expect to get "like Facebook, but for people who drive red cars" and other non-disruptors, with a team that don't have the right skills mix to deliver a high performance company, but can pitch better than a professional standup comic delivers one-liners. And then don't complain that the "quality of startups" that are coming through the filter is poor; fix your filtering process.<br />
<br />
I don't know what a good filter looks like. The accelerators could be, but they too are limiting their entry based on pitches, as well as other very limiting criteria (age range and geographic location, for example, for any of the residential ones). But for sure 3 minute pitches are only a convenient, time efficient filter; they are not a good filter.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
[1] Obviously it's far easier to choose what to say if you have a non-disruptive startup, but those are not the ones that make the big returns, are they?</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-62709441553579009942013-10-29T17:41:00.000+00:002013-11-22T11:46:58.172+00:00Thoughts for startups (no. 3)<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>I have observed, throughout life, that a man may do an immense deal of good, if he does not care who gets the credit for it.</i></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
Father Strickland, an English Jesuit around 1863 </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Another one of those sayings that's appeared in numerous forms, but Strickland appears to be the originator. When applied to startups, businesses or organisations in general, it's most useful thought of in relation to "if not me, who", "just do it" and "do as you would be done by". </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Don't spend time thinking about how to get credit for doing whatever is it that needs doing, nor resenting a lack of credit after the fact. There's other things to worry about, hopefully others are worrying about and resolving them while you're fixing this one.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
All that matters is it needs to be done, so get it done. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-37615124900137227172013-09-30T15:39:00.000+01:002013-09-30T15:39:45.451+01:00When is a startup not a startup?Startup news: Zoopla wins "Most promising European tech startup of 2013".<br />
<br />
A startup? Zoopla? It's been launched for nearly 6 years. Turns over something north of £30m, spent millions on acquisitions, been through a merger, employs 100s of people, and has £10m cash in the bank.<br />
<br />
A "start" up? It's a bit like "New town" Linford, which is now the best part of a 1000 years old. Surely there's a point at which a startup stops starting up and becomes a company, some combination of factors, a line in the sand, that means you've passed the startup phase.<br />
<br />
A length of time in the market place; should that not be relevant to the definition of a startup? Or is it only after a long time (by company standards), e.g. 10+ years? Google is 15, Facebook is only 8. Can't call them startups, surely?<br />
<br />
Does how big your company has become not have a bearing on your status as a startup? Revenue, numbers of employees, something? The UK average company turnover isn't much over £500k. Ignoring one person companies, the average company employs 15 people. So exceeding the average by more than an order of magnitude doesn't disqualify you from being a startup?<br />
<br />
Nothing about the stages you've been through? Acquiring other companies, going through a merger - these seem like the actions of an established company, not a startup. But maybe that's not included in the measure either.<br />
<br />
Ahh, wait. Is the only thing that disqualifies a company from being a startup an exit event? So the company has to be acquired or go through an IPO. Which would suggest that the concept of a startup is being defined by the interests of the investment community rather than, say, anyone else.<br />
<br />
Given the passion that drives people that start up a business, that's a bit sad, isn't it?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-92233004850449764572013-09-08T08:37:00.000+01:002013-09-08T08:40:07.982+01:00The beginning of the end of freeOr rather the end of you, the user, as the main product of Internet companies. So I'm not talking about the end of the various freemium business models, where you can get some limited version of a product for free and pay for upgraded functionality, but the end of free to use products where revenue is generated from selling advertising streams targeted at the users of those products.<br />
<br />
This business model has been the go to approach for many Internet startups and basically goes like this:<br />
<br />
"we'll do this cool thing, preferably that encourages people who see/use it to share it with others"<br />
<br />
"have to figure out how to keep a low cost of operation because we won't charge people to use it" <br />
<br />
"we'll keep doing this thing, adding some new features once in a while to keep people interested, preferably new features that encourage people to share the thing with others"<br />
<br />
"and like when we've got x number of users, we'll start selling ads, and the companies buying advertising will love us because we'll have so much data we'll be able to target people really effectively"<br />
<br />
The problem has always been that this model doesn't scale, that it's just not sustainable as the go to business model, however much its dominance in the space makes it seem otherwise.<br />
<br />
There's a number of reasons why I say free to use doesn't scale, and one of those is literally scale. The first to market with this business model could sell advertising based on smaller numbers. When they said "1 million users" 10+ years ago, it sounded a lot. But now 1 million users, unless it's a really great demographic (either high spending or very niche), is hardly worth mentioning. Facebook have topped 1 billion.<br />
<br />
But 1 million active users costs a lot of money to service - so to reach a user count that sounds attractive enough to get big ticket ad buys requires significant ongoing expenditure and therefore ever bigger rounds of investment. And all the time you have to acquire ever more users to even sound like you'll make the investors a decent return - let alone actually make them that return.<br />
<br />
Another challenge is the increased number of "need to be viral" players - it just makes for a lot of noise in people's inboxes and social feeds, generating social virii antibodies in the general population, weakening the viral potential. To overcome this requires marketing expenditure (traditionally a no go area for tech startups) and therefore increased cost to achieve a growth rate that is still slower than that of the pioneers.<br />
<br />
Increasing concerns over online privacy are also curtailing some of the potential for online marketing, reducing its attraction for those controlling ad buys.<br />
<br />
But an even more pressing reason is that people are starting to expect a lot from these services that they pay nothing for, and in particular right now expecting considerable ongoing expenditure to ensure users, particularly younger users, do not experience abuse or other unpleasantness via those services. Now, for the established players such expenditure is relatively easy to fold into the bottom line. But for those still trying to enter the market and reach that scale where ad payback is greater than expenditure it just raises the bar yet further.<br />
<br />
Is the cost bar now too high for new startups who want to adopt free-to-use as their business model? Probably not. But it's definitely getting there.<br />
<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-56943513884780283162013-08-05T11:36:00.003+01:002013-11-22T11:46:01.361+00:00Thoughts for startups (no. 2)Though this is really a follow-on from no.1 (isn't that always the way with thoughts?) we'll let it standalone.<br />
<i><br /></i>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"it ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so"</i></div>
<br />
and<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"I once was lost but now am found,<br /> Was blind, but now I see."</i></div>
<br />
The latter is from the lyrics of Amazing Grace, written by the reformed slave ship captain turned abolitionist John Newton and published in 1779.<br />
<br />
The former is peculiarly self referential, as most state it is a quotation of Samuel Clemens (possibly writing as Mark Twain). But research has failed to find any such line in his writings nor any contemporaries attributing the quote to him. Now that's irony, Alanis...<br />
<br />
But regardless of origin, the point made stands. If you make strategic decisions based on your belief that something is so when it isn't, you'll make bad to disastrous decisions - but if you make decisions that accept uncertainty, bad decisions will be less likely.<br />
<br />
But John Newton's lyric brings other concerns. The implication is that previously there was held a misplaced certainty; this error has been uncovered and the truth is now known. But what if the truth now known is not entirely the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth? What if, though different to the previous truth, it is equally incorrect?<br />
<br />
Operating on the basis of uncertainty is a more sensible approach to strategy. It doesn't preclude the use of research, just an acceptance that research at best determines what has been, and never what will be and that truth is so very often relative. The future is certainly uncertain, and if you take that into account when making planning around your startup you'll tend to have better outcomes.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-23312475765842008162013-07-25T19:16:00.002+01:002013-07-25T19:19:47.133+01:00Thoughts for startups (no. 1)Thomas Paine, British-born philosopher, French revolutionary and US founding father wrote any number of useful sayings, but I think this one is particularly apt for anyone trying to start a business that's on the leading edge:<br />
<br />
"<b>Perhaps the sentiments contained in the following pages, are not YET
sufficiently fashionable to procure them general favour; a long habit of
not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being
RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But
the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason." </b><br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>Commonsense, 1776</i></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
So for our startup, TwoTen, getting people to see that "family protection" when it comes to Internet filtering makes no sense, because age-appropriate is utterly not the same as "not adult". Not so much a formidable outcry, but definitely some denial - though the same people would object to film certificates being changed to simply "adult" and or not.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Thanks to Alex Kablanian for prompting this post.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-69661346483758874272013-07-23T14:00:00.002+01:002013-07-23T14:00:31.438+01:00For fsck's sake add swap...If you're like most people undertaking an attempt to repair a really large volume (in this case 36TB), you run fsck (or specifically e2fsck) without a second thought. Some days later (oh yes) you realise it's eating all of the RAM and making big inroads into swap. A quick check via your favourite search engine gets you the information that:<br />
<br />
(i) it's going to eat more and when it runs out of RAM and swap fsck will crash and you'll have to start over, and;<br />
<br />
(ii) you should have had more swap or used a scratch disk by creating an e2fsck conf file and configuring one as necessary.<br />
<br />
Oh for the gift of foresight... <br />
<br />
But an option I ran into elsewhere is to simply add more swap on the fly. As this worked neatly and without any fuss, I thought I'd document it here for others with a similar issue.<br />
<br />
As root or using sudo, do:<br />
<br />
> fallocate -l 8g /mnt/fsck.swap<br />
<br />
> mkswap /mnt/fsck.swap<br />
<br />
> swapon /mnt/fsck.swap<br />
<br />
where what you call it is up to you, where you put it is up to you (ideally on a volume not doing much else) and the size is dictated by the available space and set with the "-l 8g" line i.e. I made an 8GB swap file in the above example.<br />
<br />
Now I've doubled swap there's a chance this fsck could finish. Sometime in the not too distant future :)Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-47809993713445505272013-07-08T07:12:00.000+01:002013-07-08T07:12:07.346+01:00Know your tools: a comment (spammer...)There's money to be made building up links to website for the purpose of improving search rankings and/or just generating more click-through traffic. Many people object to "robotic" comments that are obviously being posted for this purpose, so the race is on to make better ways<br />
Clearly, somewhere out there, someone has made available a clever little tool that will comment on blogs and news articles, using randomised text snippets and methods of expression to presumably make it somewhat harder to quickly spot when a comment is not genuine.<br />
But if you're going to use such a tool it might be worth learning to use it before setting it off. Here's a comment posted to our new <a href="http://twoten.is/blogging" target="_blank">TwoTen blog</a> - spot the mistake...<br />
<br />
{<br />
{I have|I've} been {surfing|browsing} online more than {three|3|2|4}
hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours.
{It's|It is} pretty worth enough for me.<br />
{In my opinion|Personally|In my view}, if all {webmasters|site
owners|website owners|web owners} and bloggers made good content as you <br />
did, the {internet|net|web} will be {much more|a lot more} <br />
useful than ever before.|<br />
I {couldn't|could not} {resist|refrain from} commenting. {Very well|Perfectly|Well|Exceptionally well} written!|<br />
{I will|I'll} {right away|immediately} {take hold <br />
of|grab|clutch|grasp|seize|snatch} your {rss|rss feed} as I <br />
{can not|can't} {in finding|find|to find} your {email|e-mail}
subscription {link|hyperlink} or {newsletter|e-newsletter} service. Do
{you have|you've} any?<br />
{Please|Kindly} {allow|permit|let} me {realize|recognize|understand|recognise|know} {so <br />
that|in order that} I {may just|may|could} <br />
subscribe. Thanks.|<br />
{It is|It's} {appropriate|perfect|the best} time to make some plans for the future and {it is|it's} time to be happy.<br />
<br />
{I have|I've} read this post and if I could I {want to|wish to|desire
to} suggest you {few|some} interesting things or
{advice|suggestions|tips}. {Perhaps|Maybe} you {could|can} write next
articles referring to this article. I {want to|wish to|desire to} read
{more|even more} things about it!|<br />
{It is|It's} {appropriate|perfect|the best} time to make <br />
{a few|some} plans for {the future|the longer term|the long run} and {it is|it's} time to be happy. {I have|I've} {read|learn} <br />
this {post|submit|publish|put up} and if I {may just|may|could} I {want
to|wish to|desire to} {suggest|recommend|counsel} you {few|some}
{interesting|fascinating|attention-grabbing} {things|issues} <br />
or {advice|suggestions|tips}. {Perhaps|Maybe} you {could|can} write
{next|subsequent} articles {relating to|referring to|regarding} this
article.<br />
I {want to|wish to|desire to} {read|learn} {more|even more} {things|issues} {approximately|about} it!<br />
|<br />
{I have|I've} been {surfing|browsing} {online|on-line} {more
than|greater than} {three|3} hours {these days|nowadays|today|lately|as
of late}, {yet|but} I {never|by no means} {found|discovered} any
{interesting|fascinating|attention-grabbing} article like yours.
{It's|It is} {lovely|pretty|beautiful} {worth|value|price}
{enough|sufficient} for me.<br />
{In my opinion|Personally|In my view}, if all {webmasters|site owners|website owners|web owners} <br />
and bloggers made {just right|good|excellent} {content|content material}
as {you did|you probably did}, the {internet|net|web} {will be|shall
be|might be|will probably be|can be|will likely be} {much more|a lot
more} {useful|helpful} than ever before.<br />
|<br />
Ahaa, its {nice|pleasant|good|fastidious} {discussion|conversation|dialogue} <br />
{regarding|concerning|about|on the topic of} this {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} <br />
{here|at this place} at this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web <br />
site}, I have read all that, so {now|at this time} me also <br />
commenting {here|at this place}.|<br />
I am sure this {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} has touched all the internet <br />
{users|people|viewers|visitors}, its really really
{nice|pleasant|good|fastidious} {article|post|piece of
writing|paragraph} on building up new <br />
{blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site}.|<br />
Wow, this {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} is {nice|pleasant|good|fastidious}, my {sister|younger sister} <br />
is analyzing {such|these|these kinds of} things, {so|thus|therefore} <br />
I am going to {tell|inform|let know|convey} her.<br />
|<br />
{Saved as a favorite|bookmarked!!}, {I really like|I like|I love} {your blog|your site|your web site|your website}!<br />
<br />
|<br />
Way cool! Some {very|extremely} valid points! I appreciate you <br />
{writing this|penning this} {article|post|write-up} {and the|and also the|plus the} rest of the {site is|website is} <br />
{also very|extremely|very|also really|really} good.<br />
|<br />
Hi, {I do believe|I do think} {this is an excellent|this is a great} {blog|website|web site|site}.<br />
<br />
I stumbledupon it ;) {I will|I am going to|I'm going to|I may} {come
back|return|revisit} {once again|yet again} {since I|since i have}
{bookmarked|book marked|book-marked|saved as a favorite} it. Money and
freedom {is the best|is the greatest} way to change, may you be rich and
continue to {help|guide} {other people|others}.|<br />
Woah! I'm really {loving|enjoying|digging} the template/theme of this <br />
{site|website|blog}. It's simple, yet effective. A lot of times it's
{very hard|very difficult|challenging|tough|difficult|hard} to get that
"perfect balance" between {superb usability|user friendliness|usability}
and {visual appearance|visual appeal|appearance}.<br />
I must say {that you've|you have|you've} done a {awesome|amazing|very good|superb|fantastic|excellent|great} job with this.<br />
<br />
{In addition|Additionally|Also}, the blog loads {very|extremely|super}
{fast|quick} for me on {Safari|Internet explorer|Chrome|Opera|Firefox}.<br />
{Superb|Exceptional|Outstanding|Excellent} Blog!|<br />
These are {really|actually|in fact|truly|genuinely}
{great|enormous|impressive|wonderful|fantastic} ideas in
{regarding|concerning|about|on the topic of} blogging.<br />
You have touched some {nice|pleasant|good|fastidious} {points|factors|things} here.<br />
<br />
Any way keep up wrinting.|<br />
{I love|I really like|I enjoy|I like|Everyone loves} what you guys {are|are usually|tend to <br />
be} up too. {This sort of|This type of|Such|This kind of} clever work and {exposure|coverage|reporting}!<br />
Keep up the {superb|terrific|very
good|great|good|awesome|fantastic|excellent|amazing|wonderful} works
guys I've {incorporated||added|included} you guys to {|my|our||my
personal|my own} blogroll.|<br />
{Howdy|Hi there|Hey there|Hi|Hello|Hey}! Someone in my
{Myspace|Facebook} group shared this {site|website} with us so I came to
{give it a look|look it over|take a look|check it out}. I'm definitely
{enjoying|loving} the information.<br />
I'm {book-marking|bookmarking} and will be tweeting this to my
followers!
{Terrific|Wonderful|Great|Fantastic|Outstanding|Exceptional|Superb|Excellent}
blog and
{wonderful|terrific|brilliant|amazing|great|excellent|fantastic|outstanding|superb}
{style and design|design and style|design}.|<br />
{I love|I really like|I enjoy|I like|Everyone loves} what you guys
{are|are usually|tend to be} up too. {This sort of|This type
of|Such|This kind of} clever work and {exposure|coverage|reporting}!
Keep up the {superb|terrific|very
good|great|good|awesome|fantastic|excellent|amazing|wonderful} works
guys I've {incorporated|added|included} you guys to {|my|our|my
personal|my own} blogroll.<br />
|<br />
{Howdy|Hi there|Hey there|Hi|Hello|Hey} would you mind {stating|sharing} <br />
which blog platform you're {working with|using}? I'm {looking|planning|going} to start my own blog {in <br />
the near future|soon} but I'm having a {tough|difficult|hard} time
{making a decision|selecting|choosing|deciding} between
BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because
your {design and style|design|layout} seems different then most blogs
and I'm looking for something <br />
{completely unique|unique}. P.S {My apologies|Apologies|Sorry} for <br />
{getting|being} off-topic but I had to ask!|<br />
{Howdy|Hi there|Hi|Hey there|Hello|Hey} would you mind letting me know
which {webhost|hosting company|web host} you're {utilizing|working
with|using}? I've loaded your blog in 3 {completely different|different}
{internet browsers|web browsers|browsers} and <br />
I must say this blog loads a lot {quicker|faster} then most.<br />
Can you {suggest|recommend} a good {internet hosting|web hosting|hosting} provider at a {honest|reasonable|fair} price?<br />
{Thanks a lot|Kudos|Cheers|Thank you|Many thanks|Thanks}, I appreciate it!<br />
|<br />
{I love|I really like|I like|Everyone loves} <br />
it {when people|when individuals|when folks|whenever people} {come
together|get together} and share {opinions|thoughts|views|ideas}.<br />
Great {blog|website|site}, {keep it up|continue the good work|stick with <br />
it}!|<br />
Thank you for the {auspicious|good} writeup.<br />
It in fact was a amusement account it. Look advanced to {far|more} added agreeable <br />
from you! {By the way|However}, how {can|could} we communicate?<br />
|<br />
{Howdy|Hi there|Hey there|Hello|Hey} just wanted to give you a quick heads up.<br />
<br />
The {text|words} in your {content|post|article} seem to be running off
the screen in {Ie|Internet explorer|Chrome|Firefox|Safari|Opera}.<br />
<br />
I'm not sure if this is a {format|formatting} issue or something to do
with {web browser|internet browser|browser} compatibility but I
{thought|figured} I'd post <br />
to let you know. The {style and design|design <br />
and style|layout|design} look great though! Hope you get the <br />
{problem|issue} {solved|resolved|fixed} soon. {Kudos|Cheers|Many thanks|Thanks}|<br />
This is a topic {that is|that's|which is} {close to|near to} my heart...
{Cheers|Many thanks|Best wishes|Take care|Thank you}! {Where|Exactly
where} are your contact details though?|<br />
It's very {easy|simple|trouble-free|straightforward|effortless} to find <br />
out any {topic|matter} on {net|web} as compared to {books|textbooks}, as
I found this {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} at this
{website|web site|site|web page}.<br />
|<br />
Does your {site|website|blog} have a contact page?<br />
I'm having {a tough time|problems|trouble} locating it but, I'd like <br />
to {send|shoot} you an {e-mail|email}. I've got some {creative
ideas|recommendations|suggestions|ideas} for your blog you might be
interested in hearing. Either way, great {site|website|blog} and I look
forward to seeing it {develop|improve|expand|grow} over time.|<br />
{Hola|Hey there|Hi|Hello|Greetings}! I've been {following|reading} your <br />
{site|web site|website|weblog|blog} for {a long time|a while|some <br />
time} now and finally got the {bravery|courage} to go ahead and give you
a shout out from {New
Caney|Kingwood|Huffman|Porter|Houston|Dallas|Austin|Lubbock|Humble|Atascocita}
{Tx|Texas}!<br />
Just wanted to {tell you|mention|say} keep up the {fantastic|excellent|great|good} {job|work}!<br />
|<br />
Greetings from {Idaho|Carolina|Ohio|Colorado|Florida|Los <br />
angeles|California}! I'm {bored to tears|bored to death|bored} at work
so I decided to {check out|browse} your {site|website|blog} on my iphone
during lunch break. I {enjoy|really like|love} the
{knowledge|info|information} you {present|provide} here and can't wait
to take a look when I get home.<br />
I'm {shocked|amazed|surprised} at how {quick|fast} your blog loaded on my {mobile|cell phone|phone} .. I'm <br />
not even using WIFI, just 3G .. {Anyhow|Anyways}, {awesome|amazing|very
good|superb|good|wonderful|fantastic|excellent|great} {site|blog}!<br />
|<br />
Its {like you|such as you} {read|learn} my {mind|thoughts}!<br />
You {seem|appear} {to understand|to know|to grasp} {so much|a lot} <br />
{approximately|about} this, {like you|such as you} wrote the {book|e-book|guide|ebook|e book} in it or <br />
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{some|a few} {%|p.c.|percent} to {force|pressure|drive|power} <br />
the message {house|home} {a bit|a little bit}, {however|but} {other than|instead of} that,<br />
{this is|that is} {great|wonderful|fantastic|magnificent|excellent} blog.<br />
{A great|An excellent|A fantastic} read. {I'll|I will} {definitely|certainly} be back.|<br />
I visited {multiple|many|several|various} {websites|sites|web sites|web
pages|blogs} {but|except|however} the audio {quality|feature} for audio
songs {current|present|existing} at this {website|web site|site|web
page} is {really|actually|in fact|truly|genuinely}
{marvelous|wonderful|excellent|fabulous|superb}.|<br />
{Howdy|Hi there|Hi|Hello}, i read your blog {occasionally|from time to
time} and i own a similar one and i was just {wondering|curious} if you
get a lot of spam {comments|responses|feedback|remarks}? If so how do
you {prevent|reduce|stop|protect against} it, any plugin or anything you
can {advise|suggest|recommend}? I get so much lately it's driving me <br />
{mad|insane|crazy} so any {assistance|help|support} <br />
is very much appreciated.|<br />
Greetings! {Very helpful|Very useful} advice <br />
{within this|in this particular} {article|post}!<br />
<br />
{It is the|It's the} little changes {that make|which will make|that
produce|that will make} {the biggest|the largest|the greatest|the most
important|the most significant} changes. {Thanks a lot|Thanks|Many
thanks} for sharing!|<br />
{I really|I truly|I seriously|I absolutely} love {your blog|your
site|your website}.. {Very nice|Excellent|Pleasant|Great} colors &
theme. Did you {create|develop|make|build} {this website|this site|this
web site|this amazing site} yourself? Please reply back as I'm <br />
{looking to|trying to|planning to|wanting to|hoping to|attempting to} create <br />
{my own|my very own|my own personal} {blog|website|site} and {would like <br />
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the} theme {is called|is named}. {Thanks|Many thanks|Thank you|Cheers|Appreciate it|Kudos}!<br />
<br />
|<br />
{Hi there|Hello there|Howdy}! This {post|article|blog post}
{couldn't|could not} be written {any better|much better}! {Reading
through|Looking at|Going through|Looking through} this {post|article}
reminds me of my previous roommate! He {always|constantly|continually}
kept {talking about|preaching about} this. {I will|I'll|I am <br />
going to|I most certainly will} {forward|send} {this article|this information|this post} to him.<br />
{Pretty sure|Fairly certain} {he will|he'll|he's going to} {have a good|have a <br />
very good|have a great} read. {Thank you for|Thanks for|Many thanks for|I <br />
appreciate you for} sharing!|<br />
{Wow|Whoa|Incredible|Amazing}! This blog looks {exactly|just} like my old <br />
one! It's on a {completely|entirely|totally} different {topic|subject}
but it has pretty much the same {layout|page layout} and design.
{Excellent|Wonderful|Great|Outstanding|Superb} choice of colors!|<br />
{There is|There's} {definately|certainly} {a lot to|a great deal to} {know about|learn about|find <br />
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{You made|You've made|You have made} some {decent|good|really good} points there.<br />
I {looked|checked} {on the internet|on the web|on the net} {for more info|for more information|to find out more|to learn <br />
more|for additional information} about the issue and found {most individuals|most people} will <br />
go along with your views on {this website|this site|this web site}.<br />
|<br />
{Hi|Hello|Hi there|What's up}, I {log on to|check|read} your {new
stuff|blogs|blog} {regularly|like every week|daily|on a regular basis}.
Your {story-telling|writing|humoristic} style is {awesome|witty}, keep
{doing what you're doing|up the good <br />
work|it up}!|<br />
I {simply|just} {could not|couldn't} {leave|depart|go away} your
{site|web site|website} {prior to|before} suggesting that I
{really|extremely|actually} {enjoyed|loved} {the standard|the usual}
{information|info} {a person|an individual} {supply|provide} {for
your|on your|in your|to your} {visitors|guests}? Is {going to|gonna} be
{back|again}
{frequently|regularly|incessantly|steadily|ceaselessly|often|continuously}
{in order to|to} {check up on|check out|inspect|investigate
cross-check} new posts|<br />
{I wanted|I needed|I want to|I need to} to thank you for this
{great|excellent|fantastic|wonderful|good|very good} read!! I
{definitely|certainly|absolutely} {enjoyed|loved} every {little bit
of|bit of} it. {I have|I've got|I have got} you {bookmarked|book <br />
marked|book-marked|saved as a favorite} {to check out|to look at} new {stuff you|things you} post…|<br />
{Hi|Hello|Hi there|What's up}, just wanted to {mention|say|tell you}, I
{enjoyed|liked|loved} this {article|post|blog post}. It was
{inspiring|funny|practical|helpful}. Keep on posting!|<br />
I {{leave|drop|{write|create}} a {comment|leave a response}|drop a
{comment|leave a response}|{comment|leave a response}} {each
time|when|whenever} I {appreciate|like|especially enjoy} a
{post|article} on a {site|{blog|website}|site|website} or {I have|if I
have} something to {add|contribute|valuable to contribute} {to the
discussion|to the conversation}. {It is|Usually it is|Usually it's|It's}
{a result of|triggered by|caused by} the {passion|fire|sincerness}
{communicated|displayed} in the {post|article} I {read|looked
at|browsed}. And {on|after} this {post|article} TwoTen.is | Array. I
{{was|was actually} moved|{was|was actually} excited} enough to
{drop|{leave|drop|{write|create}}|post} a
{thought|{comment|{comment|leave a response}a response}}
{:-P|:)|;)|;-)|:-)} I {do have|actually do have} {{some|a few}
questions|a couple of questions|2 questions} for you {if you {don't|do
not|usually do not|tend <br />
not to} mind|if it's {allright|okay}}. {Is it|Could it be}
{just|only|simply} me or {do|does it {seem|appear|give the
impression|look|look as if|look like} like} {some|a few} of {the|these}
{comments|responses|remarks} {look|appear|come across} {like they are|as
if they are|like} {coming from|written by|left by} brain dead
{people|visitors|folks|individuals}? :-P And, if you are
{posting|writing} {on|at} {other|additional} {sites|social sites|online
sites|online social sites|places}, {I'd|I would} like to {follow|keep up
with} {you|{anything|everything} {new|fresh} you have to post}.<br />
<br />
{Could|Would} you {list|make a list} {all|every one|the complete <br />
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{pages|sites} like your {twitter feed, Facebook page or linkedin
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{Hi there|Hello}, I enjoy reading {all of|through} your <br />
{article|post|article post}. I {like|wanted} to write a little comment to support you.<br />
|<br />
I {always|constantly|every time} spent my half an hour to read <br />
this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site}'s {articles|posts|articles
or reviews|content} {everyday|daily|every day|all the time} along with a
{cup|mug} of coffee.|<br />
I {always|for all time|all the time|constantly|every time} emailed this
{blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site} post page to all my
{friends|associates|contacts}, {because|since|as|for the reason that} if
like to read it {then|after that|next|afterward} my
{friends|links|contacts} will too.|<br />
My {coder|programmer|developer} is trying to {persuade|convince} me to
move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the
{expenses|costs}. But he's tryiong none the less.<br />
I've been using {Movable-type|WordPress} on {a number of|a variety
of|numerous|several|various} websites for about a year and am
{nervous|anxious|worried|concerned} about switching to another platform.
I have heard {fantastic|very good|excellent|great|good} things about
blogengine.net. Is there a way I can {transfer|import} all my wordpress
{content|posts} into it? {Any kind of|Any} help would be
{really|greatly} appreciated!|<br />
{Hello|Hi|Hello there|Hi there|Howdy|Good day}! I could have sworn I've {been <br />
to|visited} {this blog|this web site|this website|this site|your blog} <br />
before but after {browsing through|going through|looking at} <br />
{some of the|a few of the|many of the} {posts|articles} I realized it's
new to me. {Anyways|Anyhow|Nonetheless|Regardless}, I'm
{definitely|certainly} {happy|pleased|delighted} {I found|I discovered|I
<br />
came across|I stumbled upon} it and I'll be {bookmarking|book-marking} it and checking back {frequently|regularly|often}!|<br />
{Terrific|Great|Wonderful} {article|work}! {This is|That is} {the type
of|the kind of} {information|info} {that are meant to|that are supposed
to|that should} be shared {around the|across the} {web|internet|net}.
{Disgrace|Shame} on {the {seek|search} engines|Google} for {now
not|not|no longer} positioning this {post|submit|publish|put up}
{upper|higher}! Come on over and {talk over with|discuss with|seek
advice from|visit|consult with} my {site|web site|website} . {Thank
you|Thanks} =)|<br />
Heya {i'm|i am} for the first time here. I {came across|found} this board and I <br />
find It {truly|really} useful & it helped me out {a lot|much}.<br />
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I hope to give something back and {help|aid} others like you {helped|aided} me.<br />
|<br />
{Hi|Hello|Hi there|Hello there|Howdy|Greetings}, {I think|I <br />
believe|I do believe|I do think|There's no doubt that} {your site|your
website|your web site|your blog} {might be|may be|could be|could
possibly be} having {browser|internet browser|web browser} compatibility
{issues|problems}. {When I|Whenever I} {look at your|take a look at
your} {website|web site|site|blog} in Safari, it looks fine {but
when|however when|however, if|however, when} opening in {Internet
Explorer|IE|I.E.}, {it has|it's got} some overlapping issues.<br />
{I just|I simply|I merely} wanted to {give you a|provide <br />
you with a} quick heads up! {Other than that|Apart from that|Besides
that|Aside from that}, {fantastic|wonderful|great|excellent} <br />
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to make {seriously|critically|significantly|severely} {articles|posts}
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far|thus far|up to now}? I {amazed|surprised} with the
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particular} {post|submit|publish|put up}
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{Great|Wonderful|Fantastic|Magnificent|Excellent}
{task|process|activity|job}!|<br />
Heya {i'm|i am} for {the primary|the first} time here. I {came
across|found} this board and I {in finding|find|to find} It
{truly|really} {useful|helpful} & it helped <br />
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offer|to provide|to present} {something|one thing} {back|again} and
{help|aid} others {like you|such as you} {helped|aided} me.|<br />
{Hello|Hi|Hello there|Hi there|Howdy|Good day|Hey there}! {I just|I
simply} {would like to|want to|wish to} {give you a|offer you a}
{huge|big} thumbs up {for the|for your} {great|excellent}
{info|information} {you have|you've got|you have got} {here|right here}
on this post.<br />
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{I will be|I'll be|I am} {coming back to|returning to} {your blog|your site|your website|your web site} for more soon.|<br />
I {always|all the time|every time} used to {read|study}
{article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} in news papers but now as I am
a user of {internet|web|net} {so|thus|therefore} from now I am using
net for {articles|posts|articles or reviews|content}, thanks to web.|<br />
Your {way|method|means|mode} of {describing|explaining|telling}
{everything|all|the whole thing} in this {article|post|piece of
writing|paragraph} is {really|actually|in fact|truly|genuinely}
{nice|pleasant|good|fastidious}, {all|every one} {can|be able to|be
capable of} {easily|without difficulty|effortlessly|simply}
{understand|know|be aware of} it, Thanks a lot.|<br />
{Hi|Hello} there, {I found|I discovered} your {blog|website|web
site|site} {by means of|via|by the use of|by way of} Google {at the same
time as|whilst|even as|while} {searching for|looking for} a
{similar|comparable|related} {topic|matter|subject}, your {site|web
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be|appears to be like} {good|great}. {I have|I've} bookmarked it <br />
in my google bookmarks.<br />
{Hello|Hi} there, {simply|just} {turned into|became|was|become|changed
into} {aware of|alert to} your {blog|weblog} {thru|through|via} Google, <br />
{and found|and located} that {it is|it's} {really|truly} informative. {I'm|I am} {gonna|going to} {watch out|be <br />
careful} for brussels. {I will|I'll} {appreciate|be grateful} {if
you|should you|when you|in the event you|in case you|for those who|if
you happen to} {continue|proceed} this {in future}. {A lot of|Lots
of|Many|Numerous} {other folks|folks|other people|people} {will be|shall
be|might be|will probably be|can be|will likely be} benefited {from
your|out of your} writing. Cheers!|<br />
{I am|I'm} curious to find out what blog {system|platform} {you have
been|you happen to be|you are|you're} {working with|utilizing|using}?
I'm {experiencing|having} some {minor|small} security {problems|issues} <br />
with my latest {site|website|blog} and {I would|I'd} like to find
something more {safe|risk-free|safeguarded|secure}. Do you have any
{solutions|suggestions|recommendations}?|<br />
{I am|I'm} {extremely|really} impressed with your writing skills <br />
{and also|as well as} with the layout on your {blog|weblog}.<br />
Is this a paid theme or did you {customize|modify} it yourself?<br />
{Either way|Anyway} keep up the {nice|excellent} quality writing,
{it's|it is} rare to see a {nice|great} blog like this one {these
days|nowadays|today}.|<br />
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your|together with your|along with your} writing <br />
{talents|skills|abilities} {and also|as {smartly|well|neatly} as} with
the {layout|format|structure} {for your|on your|in your|to your}
{blog|weblog}.<br />
{Is this|Is that this} a paid {subject|topic|subject matter|theme} <br />
or did you {customize|modify} it {yourself|your self}?<br />
{Either way|Anyway} {stay|keep} up the {nice|excellent} <br />
{quality|high quality} writing, {it's|it is} {rare|uncommon} {to peer|to
see|to look} a {nice|great} {blog|weblog} like this one {these
days|nowadays|today}..|<br />
{Hi|Hello}, Neat post. {There is|There's} {a problem|an issue} {with
your|together with your|along with your} {site|web site|website} in <br />
{internet|web} explorer, {may|might|could|would} {check|test} <br />
this? IE {still|nonetheless} is the {marketplace|market} {leader|chief} <br />
and {a large|a good|a big|a huge} {part of|section of|component to|portion of|component of|element <br />
of} {other folks|folks|other people|people} will {leave <br />
out|omit|miss|pass over} your {great|wonderful|fantastic|magnificent|excellent} writing {due <br />
to|because of} this problem.|<br />
{I'm|I am} not sure where {you are|you're} getting your {info|information}, <br />
but {good|great} topic. I needs to spend some time learning {more|much more} or understanding more.<br />
Thanks for {great|wonderful|fantastic|magnificent|excellent}
{information|info} I was looking for this {information|info} for my
mission.<br />
|<br />
{Hi|Hello}, i think that i saw you visited my {blog|weblog|website|web site|site} {so|thus} i <br />
came to “return the favor”.{I am|I'm} {trying to|attempting to} find
things to {improve|enhance} my {website|site|web site}!I suppose its ok
to use {some of|a few of} your ideas!!\Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-43770894557182536292012-07-10T13:14:00.000+01:002016-01-26T08:35:38.016+00:00Adding real value through ICT<div class="entryTitle">
</div>
<div class="entryContent">
</div>
A lot has been written in recent years regarding the importance of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) staff understanding the business in which they work and therefore being able to add real value to the business through their selection and application of technology. Organisations the world around have taken heed of this, particularly after noting the positive results generated for the trailblazers, and have worked to get their ICT staff aligned with the organisation instead of treating them as outsiders. Many specialist sectors tend to be a little behind in these trends, and it seems to me that this is the case in the charitable sector, at least in the UK (exceptions noted!).<br />
<br />
So how can ICT staff in charities can add real value? It can take some time for the best of us to identify technologies that will help in a given sector, let alone an individual organisation, but with charities there is a neat starting point - almost all charities depend on specific aspects of culture: the willingness of people to give, to volunteer; to spend some of their own time doing things for the benefit of others. Regardless of what else a charity does, educate, feed, heal, house, clothe, etc., it is essential to their success that the general populace has the desire and interest in giving freely, whether of time, skills, cash or a mix of the three. Anything that promotes this behaviour in our culture encourages charity and therefore helps charities to thrive.<br />
<br />
This is the same positive aspect of cultures and individuals that allows open source software to thrive; people give of their time, their skills and/or their cash for the benefit of the greater good. So there is one simple thing that ICT staff in charities can do to add real charitable value; switch their charities to using open source.<br />
<br />
Switch the charity to open source not because a given technical solution available at that instant of assessment and acquisition is "the best". Nor because the use of open source allows you to ensure the chosen solution becomes the best (once in use and the success criteria far better understood). Nor because the same technical people interested in open source are more likely to be interested in working in the charitable sector even if that means lower pay. Not even for the other long term cost savings offered by open source. Think, for a moment, about the tendency of charities to be helping the under-privileged in the global society and how an open source solution, having no cost of purchase, is likely to permit adoption by those very same under-privileged people, and how the charity's use of it tends to help to improve the software for all other users; let that influence the decision.<br />
<br />
But in the final analysis, switch to open source because it promotes a charitable outlook in the greater society. The ultimate way to add value to your charity through technology. Technically not necessarily simple, but philosophically so, and drawing on ancient philosophies at that. Cultivate the desire to give charity; giving begats giving; do unto others as you would be done by.<br />
<br />
To promote your charity, act charitably in your choice of ICT.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><i>(A version of this posting appeared on Oxford Archaeology's blog server in 2007)</i></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-49914675631829000032012-05-01T09:30:00.000+01:002012-05-01T09:30:57.583+01:00Another historical perspective...There are so many questions around the existing copyright system; not least is that, whatever the historical justifications, the world has changed a huge amount since the discussions were last had in full. The presumption that, for example, breach of copyright "for profit" should be seen in the same way as when it was "not for profit" was presumably not considered historically, because the costs of reproduction were such that breach was generally for profit.<br />
<br />
Of course the initial presumption that producers of content should have special protection over above producers of other things should also be revisited. Why should not doctors be paid for every time you use the leg they repaired? Plumbers each time someone uses the tap they installed?<br />
<br />
For those who want to debate the need for change, please go and <a href="http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2012/04/30/future-of-copyright/" target="_blank">read this entry</a> to the <a href="http://www.indiegogo.com/Future-of-Copyright" target="_blank">Future of Copyright contest</a>. Engage in the debate there, engage in it here, I'm happy. But don't get into the position of thinking there's nothing wrong, just because you're used to thinking that. Today's historical perspective:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"> <i><q cite="http://quotationsbook.com/quote/38977/">A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.</q> </i></blockquote><div style="text-align: right;">Thomas Paine, 1776</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-841271450287873902012-04-03T09:25:00.000+01:002012-04-03T09:25:28.970+01:00Copyright, content industries and "that's not fair"In the sense of "and I'm going to tell my <strike>mummy</strike> government". Robert Heinlein penned the following quotation, as part of his first ever published story:<br />
<br />
<i>"There has grown up in the minds of certain groups in this country the notion that because a man or corporation has made a profit out of the public for a number of years, the government and the courts are charged with the duty of guaranteeing such profit in the future, even in the face of changing circumstances and contrary to public interest. This strange doctrine is not supported by statute or common law. Neither individuals nor corporations have any right to come into court and ask that the clock of history be stopped, or turned back."</i><br />
<div style="text-align: right;"><span style="color: #666666;">Robert A Heinlein, <i>Life-Line</i>, 1939</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;">The copyright reform battle is enshrined in this thinking. On the one side we have people reasonably pointing out that the move to digital from analogue completely changes how content can and is being reproduced, reducing some formerly expensive processes to zero cost; on the other we have the rights holders shouting "no fair" and demanding the law is made tighter, rights extended longer, and that everyone else must be made to expend their resources and all unreasonable efforts to protect their lucrative business model.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;">But their business model, historically lucrative and rather young, is now outdated. Setting a book for a PDF can be carried out using cost-free software in hours and reproduction is free; people are creating popular music in their bedrooms and distributing it at no cost, and with the rise of <a href="http://aframe.com/" target="_blank">Aframe</a> (and presumably soon a Samwers clone ;) ) film production costs are following the huge drop in distribution and reproduction that digital and the Internet had already brought.</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-70155780627198690702012-04-02T09:04:00.000+01:002012-04-02T09:04:37.583+01:00A start-up founder should...A start-up founder should be able to man the support lines, develop strategy, make a sale, prepare financial statements, design a marketing plan, write website content, balance accounts, build a desk, set targets, comfort their staff, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyse a new problem, pitch to investors, programme a computer, cook up a business plan, grow efficiently, fail gallantly. Specialisation is for big corporates.<br />
<br />
<i>(with apologies to the ghost of Robert A Heinlein)</i>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-43746590684624875112012-03-16T10:30:00.000+00:002012-03-16T10:30:45.928+00:00BT and the insanity of over-large companiesHere's a thing. Rural broadband. It's bad. It's bad partly because it's a long way along copper lines to the houses from the exchange (although I know people next door to their rural exchange who get suspiciously low speeds). This major element of the problem could be quickly and easily resolved by moving to fibre to the cabinet (FTTC). The cabinet is typically only a few hundred yards from the houses it serves, and fibre optic connections can carry signals over great distances with minimal loss of performance.<br />
<br />
But BT, who rural residents are dependent on for infrastructure, don't see rural exchanges as economic to upgrade. The same BT, but in a different department, are tearing their hair out over the cost of maintaining copper infrastructure for these rural exchanges, as copper theft becomes increasingly common and rural locations are relatively low risk targets. Replacing a stolen length of copper serving an entire village is expensive in so many ways; the cable is expensive, the civil engineering that can be required is expensive, the telephony engineers to reconnect all the connections is expensive, the customer support dealing with complaints for the week or so the village is disconnected is expensive; and then there's the societal cost where elderly residents are cut off from the outside world for that long, potentially putting lives at risk.<br />
<br />
Is it really so expensive to move rural exchanges to FTTC? That much more expensive than the costs of the copper cable thefts? More expensive than lives? Is it really uneconomic? No, probably not. But the upgrade department budget will be so very, very distant from the repair department budget; there's almost certainly no one with oversight of the two cost centres at a detail level necessary to see the opportunity. So rural residents get hit from both sides, having the lowest level of service while paying the same amount for their connection, while BT pay out for patching symptoms of a problem they could just rid themselves of.<br />
<br />
Big companies don't have to be run in this short-sighted, disconnected way. But so many are...Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-40574863900537917722011-10-26T08:12:00.000+01:002013-08-13T07:03:32.642+01:00What we can learn from monkeys (part 2)If, the saying goes, you take enough monkeys and typewriters then given enough time it is statistically probable that they will reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare. Not a word or a phrase at a time, but each play as a coherent whole. The chance of the letter "n" being pressed, out of the 46 keys on our typewriter, is 1/46, the same for "o", the same for "w", for " "[1], for "i","s"," ","t","h","e"," ","w","i","n","t","e","r" and so on until we get the complete and excellent opening line of Richard III:<br />
<blockquote>
<i>"Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this sun of York"</i></blockquote>
The probability of this occurring with just one monkey is 1/46*1/46*1/46 and so on for the number of characters (76). To be more specific, the probability of creating just this first line is<br />
<br />
1 in a number far too big to even write out in normal numbers (46^76)<br />
<br />
Hmmm. Ok, to bring it down to numbers worth writing out, let's just look at the first two words "Now is", a total of 6 characters, which the chances of one monkey randomly tapping out is<br />
<br />
1 in 9,474,296,896 (making the odds of winning the UK lottery jackpot of 1 in 13,000,000 seem positively likely!)<br />
<br />
But with enough monkeys and enough time it becomes more and more likely that not only will one them tap out those opening 6 characters, but also the opening 76 characters, and even the all of the large number of characters that is Richard III, all the rest of Shakespeare's surviving plays and even the lost ones (although I'm not sure how we would know the lost ones had been correctly typed out...). By combining an infinite number of monkeys and typewriters, it would not be statistically significant that the monkeys produced the complete works; if you started with nothing and in 6 weeks someone delivers a typewritten manuscript the fact that infinite monkeys were involved means that statistically it would be not unlikely i.e. not *mathematically* improbable that the manuscript has been produced by pure random chance by a bunch of monkeys with typewriters.<br />
<blockquote>
<i>Arthur looked up. "Ford!" he said, "there's an infinite number of monkeys outside who want to talk to us about this script for Hamlet they've worked out."</i>[2]</blockquote>
So here our ever helpful monkeys are helping teach us something about statistics; that they are a dangerous source of truths. While not mathematically improbable, this truth is heavily dependent on a few highly unlikely things, like having an infinite living space in which to house infinite numbers of monkeys with their typewriters.<br />
<br />
This becomes even more of an issue when numbers turned into statistics to be used by politicians and news outlets and those others with an agenda, who all too often mistake correlation for causation, using statistics to demonstrate why some new policy or other is needed or why a current one should be changed, when (1) not understanding that statistical significance is mostly about having, or assuming, the right amount of monkeys and that (2) the fact that two measurements correlate does not mean one caused the other. News outlets in particular also have a tendency to reproduce statistics as the agenda-pusher would have them reproduced "the murder rate in the country has gone up 10%" (was 10 in year 1, 11 in year 2); the same numbers could just as easily, and probably less misleadingly, have been reported with a more qualitative statement such as "the murder rate in the country was stable". <br />
<br />
It is this misuse and misunderstanding that help give rise to the saying "Lies, damned lies and statistics"[3]; but everyone is at it. Internal "news outlets" (news inlets?) are equally prone to misleading messages of the types "90% of users rate the IT support service as 4/5 or higher", which is more precisely reported as "of the people who got around to filling out the satisfaction survey when their helpdesk ticket was closed, 90% rated the service as 4/5 or higher". A statement that would be further informed by the information that the survey defaults to 5 and you have to change it to anything lower; then take into account such truisms as people are more likely to complain than praise. Eventually a qualitative statement would work out to be more useful "the IT support service is making very few people angry", which if new software is being rolled out is good news indeed!<br />
<br />
Qualitative statements are seen to carry less weight than ones laden with numbers, which in organisations is probably the fault of the CFO; this seems ironic, given the quantity of assumptions and informed guesswork that is the basis of corporate accountants...<br />
<br />
In the end remember this: statistics just provide information in a numerical form. What it all actually means is a matter of interpretation. In other words don't be mislead into believing the numbers are not just another qualitative measure...<br />
<br />
[1] Although surely the space bar is so much bigger it would be more likely to be pressed? Damn these complications and assumptions...<br />
[2] Douglas Adams, <i>The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy</i>, with a little help from the Improbability Drive<br />
[3] Said by someone, some time in some form: <a href="http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm">http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-60328308168185336802011-08-01T17:42:00.002+01:002011-08-04T09:22:47.275+01:00Installing Linux on Dell E5420As is customary, to help others following along the path, here's some instructions for installing Linux (Kubuntu 11.04 but I'd guess any modern distro would be a similar experience) on a 2011 Dell E5420. In case the particular specification has an impact on the steps needed I've appended it to the bottom of this post.<br />
<br />
These steps assume you have a prepared bootable install medium. I use a USB key, but CD/DVD would be similar.<br />
<br />
Step 1 (optional): Ensure laptop is connected to mains and network (best to use wired).<br />
<br />
Step 2: Press F12 during BIOS spash screen to reach boot menu, and select your boot media.<br />
<br />
Step 3: When install option comes up, select it. Accept all defaults and complete user information as requested/desired.<br />
<br />
Step 4: When instructed, reboot laptop. If using USB and an SSD this is in less than 5 minutes.<br />
<br />
Step 5: Everything works. Enjoy :)<br />
<br />
Sadly this traditional post is basically pointless, because it was that easy. All but one of my nieces could have done it (the youngest is only a month old, give her a chance...). In less time than it takes to install a Windows service pack you can take a blank laptop and transform it into complete working environment with all the core applications (office suite, etc.) already installed. No technical expertise required.<br />
<br />
PS Rather nice, solidly built, nice to use laptop, in case you're interested. 3 mouse buttons on the Trackstick too. Battery lasted 7 hours out of the box, including all the install work :)<br />
<br />
Spec (yes, no Microsoft Windows was supplied nor paid for):<br />
<br />
Latitude E5420<br />
Processor : One Intel Core i3-2310M (2.10GHz, 3MB cache, Dual Core)<br />
Display : 14.0in UltraSharp HD+ (1600X900) AntiGlare LED-backlit with Premium Panel Guarantee<br />
Palmrest : Dual Point Touchpad and Trackstick<br />
Camera : Integrated Full HD Camera with Microphone<br />
Memory : 2GB (1x2GB) 1333MHz DDR3 Dual Channel<br />
Hard Drive : 128GB Mobility Solid State Drive<br />
Optical Drive : DVD +/-RW Drive<br />
Battery : Primary 9-cell 87W/HR, 3 Year Warranty<br />
Wireless : Dell 375 Bluetooth Card<br />
Wireless Card : EMEA Intel Centrino Advanced-N 6205 (802.11 a/b/g/n) Half Mini Card<br />
Keyboard : Internal UK/Irish Qwerty Backlit Dual Pointing Keyboard (antimicrobial)<br />
OS Media : Not IncludedAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-65119312058302881552011-06-20T07:44:00.000+01:002015-05-13T12:09:07.892+01:00When not finding something is an errorOr to be exact is a #VALUE! - a passing tip for those using spreadsheet functions that return an error code instead of a usable outcome.<br />
<br />
I was using the FIND function to look for a character in a text string. Specifically I was trying to find "/" so that I could rip domain parts from a huge list of URLs. My problem came when some of the URLs were just domains and contained no trailing "/" - at this point my formula<br />
<br />
=FIND("/",A1)<br />
<br />
returned a #VALUE! code instead of a 0, where FIND's outcome is normally a numeric reference indicating the location of string. A bug, I thought, so let's get it fixed. As I was using LibreOffice Calc and their release cycle is more or less monthly, I figured I could live with the issue for now and get the bug fixed for next month.<br />
<br />
A conscientious software user always, I duly posted the bug and a day later I get an email indicating someone was processing it. I open the email and... the bug has been closed, marked NOTABUG. The associated comment said "This is not a bug. It is the expected behavior in ODF 1.2". As the newly completed OpenDocument Format 1.2 had some of the world's top experts developing the formula specification, this seemed, well, odd.<br />
<br />
For those who, like me, couldn't understand why 0 isn't a logical outcome for "not found" in the FIND function, I asked someone I know who has some expertise in this sort of thing (Rob Weir of IBM, a spreadsheet developer since 1990ish and the chair of the ODF Technical Committee). Turns out it's that damned legacy thing again...<br />
<br />
Back in the early days of spreadsheet development, 20 or so years ago, it was believed that a user wouldn't understand 0 as the outcome of a test that finds nothing, potentially causing subtle errors to cascade through the spreadsheet. So spreadsheet developers adopted the practice of outputting an error as the null result for this type of function. As it is now a well-established practice it was decided ODF should stick to it in the formula specification.<br />
<br />
As my FIND function was nested in a larger formula, a error output just caused the whole formula to fail, breaking my automated process. Luckily it turns out there is a workaround using another function called ISERR (ain't it great knowing really clever people?). So if like me you need FIND to return an integer or otherwise testable answer rather than an error, wrap it in a ISERR:<br />
<br />
=IF(ISERR(FIND("my string",<the cell to search>)),0,FIND("my string",<the cell to search))<br />
<br />
Sorted. Or rather found...Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-44803618728604211132011-05-02T08:11:00.000+01:002011-05-02T08:11:33.890+01:00The public good of software<div class="entry">Or public goods, to be more precise. Every economics student can promptly skip three paragraphs.<br />
<br />
The subject of economics likes to classify and simplify things; some of these classifications and simplifications are useful, some not. Several in classical economics are downright dangerous, but I digress. One classification that more or less all economists would agree on is the concept of the public good. A public good is one that is collectively paid for because it makes no sense to pay for it any other way; the majority of services provided by the public sector are, or should be, public goods per se.<br />
<br />
A classical example of a public good is streetlights. Streetlights have been around since 800AD or so; the first streetlights as we recognise them today were gas powered and switched on in Pall Mall in 1807; the first streets to be lit by electric light were in 1881 (Cleveland, Ohio and Newcastle-upon-Tyne appear to share this honour). All these streetlights share one distinctive feature; it is effectively impossible to have streetlights and charge individually for benefiting from them.<br />
<br />
Early streetlights were either installed for public benefit or as a marketing ploy; modern day streetlights are more or less universally funded from local taxation. No one has ever managed to charge directly the user of the streetlight; creating and managing a use-based charging model would be several orders of magnitude more expensive than the provision of the light itself. Light being tricky stuff would provide much of the complication. How much light is enough before you get charged? So how close to the light can you get for free? Do you get charged different amounts depending on the how dark it would be if the light was turned off? How foggy it is? Do people who get the light spilling into their houses get charged? Anyhow, it's far too complex a question and to my knowledge it has never even been attempted. Residents in the town/region pay, everyone who passes by at night benefits.<br />
<br />
Recently I argued against open source software being a cartel market. I closed that post by pointing out that software could not actually be seen as a normal economic good; can software be best seen as a public good? Interesting question...<br />
<br />
The formal definition of a public good is that it is non-rivalrous and non-excludable. A good is seen to be excludable if you can easily and cheaply prevent those who have not paid for the good from consuming it, while a rivalrous good is one where your consumption of it prevents another from having it.<br />
<br />
So here I am with my computer, using <a href="http://www.libreoffice.org/download">LibreOffice</a> to write this post. If software is a normal good then my using it should be preventing you using it. Which clearly it does not as even if you don't yet have it you could just follow the download link to get it, I could give you a copy of the one I'm using and, on a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thin_client">thin client</a> setup, we could all be using the same installed copy, so software (all software) is non-rivalrous; one tick in the box. Interestingly the common example of a non-rivalrous good is broadcast media - yet software is utterly non-rivalrous while broadcast media has a number of restrictions (no simultaneous use of wavelengths, requirement of near line of sight to transmitter, limited range). An alternative definition of a non-rivalrous good is one that could be provided at a very low additional (marginal) cost for each additional customer. Software clearly satisfies this definition and then some as the marginal cost for each additional customer/user is effectively zero.<br />
<br />
So is software excludable? Well, companies whose business model is the production of software for sale have historically gone to great lengths to prevent people from using software without paying for it; and yet even with significant public monies being spent in helping prevent this illicit use, people continue to make use of all sorts of software they are not supposed to, entirely free. Arguably even the reasonably effective methods that have been used to prevent software being used illicitly, like dongles, are so expensive <b>relative to the cost of the copy of the software</b> that they would automatically fail the excludability test.<br />
<br />
So software is non-rivalrous and non-excludable. A pure public good by normal economic definition. Yet it is not how many people currently view it, and much software is sold at high prices to individuals as if it was a normal good. Actually much software is sold prices so high <b>relative to the cost of the copy of the software</b> that it's priced at what economics would view as monopoly prices.<br />
<br />
Why isn't software provided as a public good? Why isn't it something we collectively provide? Surely this would be to the greatest benefit of all, economically speaking, and be far more in keeping with the nature of software. Oddly, it is not uncommon for companies who produce software for sale to spend more money on selling, marketing and protecting the sales of the software than they do on making the software better. Economically speaking this makes no sense - it is the attempt to create artificial exclusions that costs so much money, rather than improvements to the product. <br />
<br />
So software could be, should be a public good. Come to think of it, wouldn't it be even better, something more than a public good, if software was not only provided collectively but in a way that made it easy for others to improve? Like if the underlying programming code was available and people could fix stuff and add new features and then make the resulting improved, added value version available to everyone else allowing the virtuous cycle to start again. Wouldn't that be a truly amazing thing? Ever more added value for all, the economics are just brilliant; just need a name for the approach and then surely this "available code" software will spread like wildfire...<br />
<b></b><b><br />
</b></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-88124677108653219362011-04-12T17:07:00.000+01:002011-04-12T17:07:40.862+01:00Big Society<h2></h2><div class="entry">The phrase of the era, for good or for bad. But it is of course an old idea, something some people have been practising all their lives, a concept that is as old as thought. Giving is indeed better than receiving. And the best “gives” in the Big Society concept are those that just keep on giving. The volunteers that pick up the litter on the local fields are great as is the outcome of their time contribution, litter-free green areas; but when they stop doing it, whether through age, illness or a move away, the fields stop being litter-free. All too quickly :(<br />
<br />
Open source project contributions on the other hand just keep on giving: we add a fix, everyone benefits from the fix; you add an enhancement, everyone gets the enhancement; they add some documentation, everyone gets to use the documentation. Ain’t that great? An excellently large Big Society example that everyone can help with and everyone benefit from, even after people stop contributing. So, all you councils, voluntary organisations, government departments and agencies, come on, join in…</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9054044045984939576.post-72187113629383177702011-02-24T11:25:00.000+00:002011-02-24T11:25:24.404+00:00The economics of a (software) cartelOver <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5725">here</a>, thanks to <a href="http://twitter.com/#%21/glynmoody">@glynmoody</a>, I read what is to all intents and purposes an article with the best of academic credentials. It reads like the summary of a thesis or maybe a major paper, and it is published on a website that tags itself as "Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists" and is backed by the <a href="http://www.cepr.org/default_static.htm">Centre for Economic Policy Research</a>, surely a most respectable institution. Submissions are reviewed by an editorial board, which while not a strict academic peer review process should be fairly close to one.<br />
<br />
So given all this, why is the article so flawed? And in its basic premise...<br />
<br />
Early on it becomes fairly clear the article is written with an agenda:<br />
<blockquote>How, if at all, should governments use [open source software (OSS)]? One important theoretical insight starts from the observation that [OSS is] ...imperfect [and] has distinct areas of advantage and disadvantage (von Engelhardt 2008). This implies that large modern economies will usually <b>require</b> a mix of both [OSS and closed source software (CSS)]. </blockquote><div style="text-align: left;">The article goes on:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: left;">[Engelhardt and Maurer] point out that the existence of CSS code increases OSS output and vice versa. To see why, consider an all-OSS world in which each company offers consumers exactly the same shared code as every other company. By definition no company can then compete by writing more OSS code than its rivals. This lack of competition suppresses code production for the same reason that cartels suppress output.</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: right;"> <i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Quotes from " Open vs closed source software: The quest for balance" linked above, emphasis added</span></i></div><div style="text-align: right;"><br />
</div>From this point the argument is reasonably constructed and more or less appropriate in its conclusions. But this premise, that a pure open source world would (a) result in less code production and the implication (b) that that would inherently be "a bad thing" is totally unfounded.<br />
<br />
So, as it is a very good place to start, I'll start at the beginning; with the definition of the economic concept referred to, a cartel.<br />
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A cartel in economic theory is generally seen to occur at a particular point in a range of market types. This range stretches from perfect competition to monopoly. A monopoly market is the condition which the game of the same name defines as victory, that is the absence of competition. Perfect competition at the other end of the scale is a market where all parties know all things about the goods sold in the market (known as perfect knowledge) and it is easy to set up in business. As is clear in the terminology used, perfect competition is seen to be good and monopolies bad.<br />
<br />
Economists see a sliding scale between monopoly and perfect competition, and degrees along the way. It is generally accepted that a near or effective monopoly is as bad as a monopoly; a near monopoly can be seen to exist in a market where a single company controls more than two thirds of that market. Below a monopoly in economic badness lies an oligopoly, where a small number of large companies control the majority of a market. It is at this point in the scale that cartels are seen to form. A cartel is where a number of firms in the oligopoly get together and conspire to fix pricing, using their power to inhibit competition, to create an effective monopoly.<br />
<br />
One of the consequences of suppressing competition in this way is that as there is less need to compete, not only are prices maintained artificially high but the members of the cartel have no need to try and compete in other ways, through improved production methods, higher quality output, higher rates of output etc.. This is the cartel effect the bad, bad pure open source world will have. No incentive to compete, so reduced output (where output is defined as code).<br />
<br />
It is important at this point to note that the basic models and concepts of mainstream economics are very old, and that these models essentially assume a physical product, known as a "good", is being produced from raw materials and being sold into the market of whatever type. It is also useful to understand that there are theoretic <i>possible</i> consequences of a cartel, and the one used in the article does not take into account the search for profits i.e. that while operating a pricing cartel, companies will still seek to improve their individual profit position and thus continue to evolve in areas centred on reduced production costs and increased output. <br />
<br />
Phew. Right, so reasons why monopolies, oligopolies and cartels are bad while competition is good: one basic concept is that while an accounting profit is considered ok an economic profit is considered bad. So for your company to return a profit in its accounts, no matter how large, is absolutely fine; but for the resources used in your company to produce more than a very small (marginal) amount of return than they would if used in their next best option, e.g. if your staff worked for another company which would make a lot less money than yours? This is bad. A second and pertinent concept is that because you have little incentive to make your products better or in a cheaper way, resources are not being utilised in the most efficient manner i.e. not contributing their maximum value to the economy.<br />
<br />
So back to the premise: that is that if all software firms were selling the same open source codebase, output of code would fall and this would be "a bad thing". Ok, first off. Software companies that sell software don't do open source. You don't sell software if you're in the open source market, you sell services. Moreover you do so in something approaching a perfectly competitive market.<br />
<br />
So why would I give you money to use your Linux when I can get this other Linux, based on the same codebase for free? Oh, you'll ensure patches are timely and applied in a tested manner before being provided to me? You'll provide a ridiculously good SLA if I have problems with my Linux desktops and servers? You have many of the best coders and therefore will be able to fix any issues I encounter in very short timeframes? In which case, your differentiations, albeit minor, are important to me, the buyer in this near perfect market, so I'll give you my money even though there is a free version available.<br />
<br />
Then to the second and defined negative aspect: that code production would fall and this would be a bad thing. I will with great willpower refrain from swearing at this point and try to calmly point out the fallacy of applying pure manufacturing thinking to software code. Quantity is utterly irrelevant in software code. Quality is everything. This is then back to the conversation outlined above. The quality differentiator is what I will pay for.<br />
<br />
You can make an office productivity tool a little faster, a little more standards-compliant, a little less prone to arbitrarily adding and removing spaces? And you can do it for me now, although other people will get the benefit later? Why, that sounds good to me. I suppose others will be paying to get a shinier interface and some new functionality, which I will gain from later? That's nice. Why, that sounds suspiciously like a win-win from that game theory stuff doesn't it...<br />
<br />
So back to the economics: no, a completely open source software world would not act as a cartel, with a negative consequence of reduced code output. Sure the amount of code written would be less, but not in a negative way; it would be a result of the increased efficiency of the perfectly competitive market software would become.<br />
<br />
So open source software would be, more or less, a perfectly competitive market? Well, sort of.<br />
<br />
You see, actually there's another underlying premise in that article that is flawed, a premise the article doesn't acknowledge. Quite simply you can't treat software as if it is a normal good - it doesn't exhibit any of the features of one. But I'll leave that for another day...Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08302909185448268811noreply@blogger.com1